New Economic data Analysis by Senior economist!

August 1, 2014
Data Release: July employment report disappoints, with the lack of wage pressures allowing the Fed to bide
its time before hiking rates
 Non-farm payrolls increased by 209k in July, below expectations for a 230k gain. However, revisions to the
previous two months added 15k to the tally, offsetting some of the disappointment from the headline number.
 Private payrolls rose by 198k on the month with private service industries up 140k. Services growth was led by
professional & business services (+47k, of which 9k were in temp services), retail trade (+27k), and health &
social assistance (+25k).
 Goods-producing industries had a great month rising by 58k. Gains were driven by manufacturing (+28k, with
half in transportation equipment manufacturing). Construction hiring accelerated to 22k in July, while mining &
logging added 8k positions.
 Government hiring rose by 11k entirely driven by gains at the local level (+12k).
 The unemployment rose by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2% as gains in household-survey employment were not
enough to keep up with a significant increase in the labor force (+329k). The labor force participation rate
inched up by 0.1pp to 62.9%.
 Average hourly earnings were largely flat on the month, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% gain, with the
year-over-year measure inching up slightly to 2.0%. After excluding remuneration of supervisory positions,
average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees rose by 0.2%.
 Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.5.
Key Implications
 The July employment report fell shy of expectations on several accounts, as both the headline gain
disappointed and the jobless rate ticked up. However, the mitigating factors of positive revisions to previous
months and an uptick in the labor force growth make the report more palatable.
 The solid gain in the labor force has led to an uptick in the participation rate from its lowest level in decades.
We expect that as the labor market heals, more discouraged workers (or shadow unemployed) will begin to
trickle back to the work force. The increase in the labor force should keep the pace of jobless rate declines
relatively gradual relative to the experience over the previous quarters.
 The strong showing in goods employment is encouraging, with the strong rebound in the auto production
helping manufacturing to the best month in job creation since November of last year. Construction hiring also
accelerated, lending some hope that the housing recovery will gather pace in the coming months.
 Perhaps the most disappointing element in the report was the complete lack of wage gains and only marginal
gain among production and non-supervisory employees. Lack of any evident wage pressures lends support to
the notion shared by Fed Chair Yellen and much of the FOMC that the labor market still has far to go before it
is fully healed. Lack of wage gains leaves the Fed with a strong case for keeping rates low for the next several
quarters. With further improvement in the labor market, wage gains should materialize in the coming quarters,
but the Fed’s first rate hike is still likely a year away


Controlling my greed!

Change Is Constant, Stay the Course!

I stayed away from last week bull run when newspaper/ online channels were painting rosy picture of improving economy and Greece recovery. I controlled my impulse to dive into flow of market. This week same news managers are announcing end of world for equities, gold and rest of world economy. This time I controlled my impulse to get into panic and made my regular investment into long term fund.

I choose my favorites ETF at low prices (8%-9% lower). I am not claiming I making fortunes built I am managing losses. I am trying manage my losses in bear market where buying sentiments are negative and it is time pick and choose your poison. I know after couple year when sentiment change I will reap those benefits then I probably will be buying gold or bonds :).

All in end I am trying to control my market impulse let see if I can continue to time my investment in the market.

Wish me luck!

Another Day of Investor Greed!

A negative response to the Fed’s “Operation Twist,” so labeled by market participants, stirred sellers to action today. Their conviction made it impossible for tech stocks to provide leadership after trading with strength for so much of the session.

Market is down today and I think best day of month to invest in my chosen funds for long terms investments.

You don’t have to Warren Buffet or industry insider to make a decent gain on long term. Buy this fear today and you will next couple of day when market up by 100 points or down by another 100 but idea is always buy at lower curve .

Enjoy the ride!

I want to be my own fund manager!!!

We read lot of stocks ideas on internet support groups, website, thousands of premium membership available for $30 -300 for monthly, yearly membership, multiple TV channels analyst discussing next bright ideas and stocks, mutual funds, option, CEF, multiple hedge techniques etc. Guess what middle class still a lose money in stocks market. Information, lot of information overloading and clouding our judgement of investing. Always burned

Now if you want to get away from this confusion you also have option to hire portfolio advisory services offered by reputed firms but they come with some fee/charges. Even recently I tried few services like, for my small investor perspective but still I was not satisfied with extra fees and limitation of investment. I like to be honest I have account and I like simplicity of investment choices and transparency of investment but problem is I am still paying ETF fees + .9% flat betterment fees and limited to their ETF of their choices.

I want to invest wisely but cannot afford portfolio advisory services, cannot go for CD, Saving accounts for 1% interest rates but I like to invest like them do not want to worry about markets ups/downs.Now my wishlist is if have $5000 to invest

1: I want to diversify my small money in big investment horizon. Ya you got it right with my 5 grand I want to invest in top 100 companies, gold, International market, Hot corporate Bonds, US Treasuries etc.
2: I want my portfolio outperform index consistently and I can measure it myself in ups and downs.
3:I want pay less fess then mutual fund so my little principal investment amount will not sucked in hefty mutual fund expense ratio and load fees.
4: I want no transaction fees every time I add little investment in my portfolio.

Difficult but Here what I did to fulfill my wishlist and formulate my investment strategy.

First I identified ways to minimize my transaction cost because I will be investing on recurring basis may be on monthly basis. So I chose to open free trading account in TD Ameritrade because they are offering more than 100 ETFs free of transaction fees and most of them are highly rated in Industry. ETF is another choice over mutual funds because of low expense fees then Mutual Funds. So I here resolve 1 issue transaction fees and lower portfolio expenses.
Second Steps identify diversification I need I chose large cap growth, large cap blend, Midcap, International,Conservative bond ETF, Inflation protected bonds, and Gold ETF. So I chose seven ETF to trade and target my portfolio. I also created a watch list on to create alerts, consistently view their performance and they also have cool feature called instant X- Ray which will explain your diversification and expenses. My portfolio expenses ratio came about .23%. So achieved another step

Third step is allocation of my funds into these ETFs as per my desire % . I created a tool in excel to calculate and divide my investment as per percentage allocated by me in same sheet as per current quote in market. All I have to do place those order manually in TD Ameritrade website and good things is that I place 7 ETF transaction order for $9.99 only. I will be attaching my tool soon to help out people create own investment balancing.

So much in wishlist and you may think not impossible but will agree very difficult for small investors. After being in servicing financial industry as software professional I like put my experience create better investment strategy for myself first and let other know. Please do not confuse my strategy with your because you may have different goals then mine. What you can do you can use these steps to define your strategy i.e. you can define your own strategy with High risk- high reward profile with small money by investing more in stocks part and less in bonds and gold. You can go for less risk and low growth portfolio with more bond exposure.